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Re: [LUG] OT - placebos

 

On Sat, 19 Dec 2009 16:21:27 +0000
bas <baslake@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> > Of course it is. The placebo effect applies to more than just
> > medicine.
> > > > Without a proper trial, you've no way of knowing whether it
> > > > actually is better or you just think it is. (It's perfectly
> > > > possible that you're right. It's also possible that you're
> > > > wrong. Just listening to it isn't enough.)
> >   
> > > errr, im not trying to impress any one with my system except  my
> > > self and i know it sounds far better so "a proper trial" isnt
> > > even on the radar and i assure you its no placebo effect.
> >
> > You don't have to impress anyone, and if you're happy with it then
> > fair enough. I'm merely saying that it's not possible to know
> > whether it's actually objectively better or you just *think* it's
> > better just by listening to it. If you think it's going to sound
> > better, it *will* sound better.

> i stand my ground,,, its not just "thinking" its better, the result
> was stunning,,,, not imagination. going back a few years (about 35)

Logically it is not possible to make that assertion. Bias is
unavoidable in any individual assessment where the individual KNOWS
what has changed from situation A to situation B. This effect cannot be
dismissed, it is always present. You can no more avoid the placebo
effect than you can avoid gravity. Bias can be balanced and the overall
effect compensated by using a double-blind but (as a scientist and
having scrutinised large numbers of trials and junk science) if you
stand your ground based on the placebo effect, your judgement is in
error and your feet are on quicksand.

Placebo is just another name for operator bias. Bias occurs whenever
anyone involved in making the judgement have any knowledge of what has
changed between the various times at which a judgement is made. Bias is
unavoidable; you can only compensate for it, never avoid it.

Placebo != imagination
Bias != imagination

The placebo effect and operator bias are absolutely real effects,
statistically measurable and completely unrelated to imagination.

> in my system then (vinyl) i had a stylus that cost me £15.00 (a lot
> then) vms15e mk11, and was going to upgrade so went round a mates
> house and offered it to him, he was dubious, so said i would fit it
> and if he didn't find any difference i would have it back,,i also
> said i prolly wouldn't notice but he would, well, again he was blown
> away and i was also,,,,, no placebo there either.

Rubbish - you both knew the nature of the changes, the placebo effect
had a significant effect upon both judgements.

> when you have
> listened to a system for years then make an upgrade change there are
> bound to be differences you will notice good or bad

Science has proved again and again that if the judgement is made with
knowledge of when the change was made, the judgement will reinforce the
beliefs of those making the judgement with a statistically significant
effect.

Double-blind randomised trials are the only rigorous method of
compensating for the ever present placebo effect, no amount of bluff
and blustering will change the reality.

-- 


Neil Williams
=============
http://www.data-freedom.org/
http://www.linux.codehelp.co.uk/
http://e-mail.is-not-s.ms/

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