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OT: Rats was Re: [LUG] Oh dear, "Vista would defeat even Brunel"

 

James Wonnacott wrote:
> 
> Actually I read the other day that where ever you are there is usually
> at least one rat within 20 yards!!!!!!

Land area of UK - 241,590 Sq Kilometers. Sq Kilometer is a 1000,000
square meters.

Within 20 yards suggests a rat population around 200 million if my back
of the envelope calculation is correct. Assuming (very unrealistically
that rats spread themselves out in a very efficient hexagon grid system
in order to make the figures work).

The BBC is claiming a rat population of 60,000,000, which suggests that
20 yards is a tad low, of course the area covered increases as the
square of the radius.

So I make that about 35 meters (not yards, or chains, for furlongs),
with optimum rat coverage. Of course if the rats all stayed spaced out
that far, they would never be able to breed.

I'm not sure how to correct the figures for distribution, I think you'd
need to know how clumpy rat populations are, but I bet the net result
would be that most of the time, most people outside densely populated
residential areas are well away from wild rats. Which concurs with the
claimed housing studies saying only 1.7% of houses have rats outside
(however that was defined, 0.4% rats inside).

I'm also cynical of the 60 million figure. It was estimated at 40
million at the turn of the century, and I'm pretty sure that rural small
mammal populations have declined dramatically since then (water voles,
dormice etc are all scarce little creatures these days. I doubt the
rural Brown rats escaped), and my experiences with the Norfolk barley
harvest concurs with the view that the rural rat is pretty scarce. Of
course it is possible the urban rat has replaced these losses.

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