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Re: [LUG] open economic modelling

 

On Saturday 04 October 2008 10:57, Henry Bremridge wrote:
> On Sat, Oct 04, 2008 at 09:18:31AM +0100, Tom Potts wrote:
> > Now I've stopped crowing about how the credit crunch was obvious I'm on
> > the lookout for open source economic models to play with on my PC.
> > Anyone seen any?
>
> Silly question perhaps but modelling what?
Er .. the Economy - money flow etc.
The sort of thing that, when you plug in cancelling the 10% tax band would 
leave 2million out of pocket.
The sort of thing that would say - oh house prices are collapsing so $200 
trillion of leveraged 'capital' will evaporate.
The sort of thing you would expect an olevel government to have so it would 
get an idea of the effect of its economic policies - not 100% accurate but 
like a short range weather forecast.
I heard in the early 80's that the treasury used 3 computer models to predict 
economic consequences. 2 had keynseyan ideas in them so, even though they 
were better at predicting the future, Maggie had them ditched. 
I know this sort of thing would be a double edged sword but the lack of 
evidence of ones existence seems to be a tad worrying! Even the betting 
companies have neural networks to keep them ahead of cheats - sorry smart 
punters.
Tom te tom te tom


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