D&C Lug - Home Page
Devon & Cornwall Linux Users' Group

[ Date Index ][ Thread Index ]
[ <= Previous by date / thread ] [ Next by date / thread => ]

[LUG] SCO Unix Linux Love Triangle



IMHO

Well having read through a great deal of Spin and Legal profanity I think i am getting a measure of where this is coming from.

SCO has seen an ever decreasing revenue from its Unix Product in recent Years. This reduces the share value in the markets.

Quick method to attempt to Buck the Markets :- Rule 1

Embark on an Aquisition Campaign.
i.e SCO Buys Caldera. This enhances product line and increases market share (Client Base), which stimulates confidence in the market and bucks the share price.


See Also SAGE, for similar trends of aquisition in the past and currently - FT article 10/05/2003 Sage to invest £300m in Software Aquistion. again Bucks Sage Share Price

SCO's Balance Sheets show lower profits and a reduction in R & D, as cost of Caldera purchase and reduction in Unix Sales pull down turnover and increase costs. Investors like to see a steady investment in R&D from tech companies as future products will generate reveune.

As profits and product development reduce investor confidence flaggs and share price falls.

Next move:-
Blagg the market and media in to believing you have got a new mouse trap.
Thus cook up a story to that shows that your nearest competitor is actually operating outside the law. Investors see this as providing good sales oppotunities and inciting customer doubt about competitive products so once again SCO investor confidence stabilises. Therefore so do the shares


Now for the next move.
Find a method to attack a company with enough clout to buy you out. hit them with a lawsuit that if it succeeds the cost to that company would be very large. Into the frame comes IBM.


IBM see's that if this goes to court they will have to cough up a load of cash for nothing (either as legal costs to defend it or compensation if they loose it). So they only have one way out.Force an agressive buy out through the SCO Board ( This is much more easily achieved when Board members are already under pressure to maintain share price, because Directorate Fudiciary Duties of Trust state that in a PLC, they must act in the best interests of the share holders of the Company. So if the per share offer price is greater than the market value and the future outlook is less than rosie then the Buy Out must be excepted. Or else the board can be ripped apart at then next AGM.

Of Course the Board at SCO with this manouvre can now relax in the knowledge that which ever way it goes they win. Income from Succesful case or Income from overpriced buyout.

Sure the possiblity exist that IBM could just stick 2 Fingers up, but of course they're stuck in a corner because all the media cover gives market presence and so they can not afford to loose such a high profile case.

Now to add some Mud to the Water...

Microsoft see's a excellent FUD (Fear uncertainty and Doubt) marketing opportunity here.
So for a sum it buys into Unix licenses from SCO on some pretence of wanting to use them.
The truth is this is a method to fund SCO's case against Linux. This promotes the FUD campaign for Microsoft which they can spin into Oooo you don't want to use Linux better buy MS Products.


Where from here..

Watch the press for the MS FUD campaign - This will come in the form of What it intends to do with its newly aquired licenses for Unix as this is enough to prompt the press to link each media article back to SCO IBM LINUX story.

SCO is now talking of entering into a financial discussion with a Major Vendor :-

Future here is either

A) They have been approached re Aquisition by IBM
or
B) Cloak and Dagger :- Make IBM Think that HP or SUN or Other are in the Fray to make a bid. This lets IBM know that a buy out is on the table


Bottom Line :-

Linux is a powerfull disruptive technology in the Technology economy and has more than a foot hold now . There is no way for the corporate sector to fight back because of it's 'Free' Ethos.

I could be corrected on this next point but. IF SCO bought Caldera and then Release Linux under GPL and now say that it's there intellectual property, then surely this in itself means they can't do bugger all about it. e.g

I write dumbnits an OS in the 1970's, My Staff sign confidentiality contracts that I own everything including the concepts and designs and they must not use them else where. Then in 2000 I buy up a company producing feedumbnits, which my staff / exstaff have contributed to, and package this as my own distro and release it under GPL as Rick's freedumbnits. Then i have indirectly released my intellectual property to GPL saying anyone can do what they like with it. Tricky to get round that in a court.

Sure if MS took samba.org to court and said you reversed our SMB technology which is our IP and now we want to sue you. I could see this having some legal merit but the above is about as likely as Bill gates releasing XP as GPL

Regards Rick


-- The Mailing List for the Devon & Cornwall LUG Mail majordomo@xxxxxxxxxxxx with "unsubscribe list" in the message body to unsubscribe.


Lynx friendly